Tagged: Red Sox
Why it is Unfair to Compare Pedroia to Cano
When read
ing Boston and New York newspapers, I’ve seen Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano placed side by side a lot. It kind of makes sense since they both play second base and they play on rival teams, but I think it’s really unfair to compare the two, and here’s why:
1. Their purposes to their team: Statistically, Pedroia most of the time scores more runs than Robinson Cano. Conversely, Robinson Cano drives in more runs than Dustin Pedroia. To me, that means they serve two completely different purposes in their respective line-ups. Pedroia tries to get on base hitting in front of Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis, and Cano tries to protect and drive in the likes of Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.
2. Their approaches at the plate: This is more of a 1a, but it is very evident statistically that their plate approaches are different. For their careers, Dustin Pedroia’s walk rate (bb%) is higher than Robinson Cano’s, while Robinson Cano’s isolated power (Slugging % – Batting Average) is higher than Dustin Pedroia’s. In my opinion, theses differences also has to do with their purposes in the lineup, but I also think that they just are different when it comes to their plate approach.
3. Their power-speed combo: This discrepancy has come out more in the 2011 season than historical. This year, Robinson Cano has 18 HR’s and 8 SB’s. Dustin Pedroia has 15 HR’s and 25 SB’s. Now, of course, you can argue that Dustin Pedroia has just as much power as Cano and more speed, but I’ll just say again that Robinson Cano has more isolated power than Dustin Pedroia (.211 for Cano, .170 for Pedroia). This is 100% due, in my opinion, to the fact that they are very different players.
4. Their fielding: This point is probably the most subjective one I will make, for it is based solely on my observations. They are both golden glove caliber second baseman, but they have very different their style of play. Pedroia, to me, seems more aggressive when he plays second base, using his quick feet and his all-out style to make sure the ball does not leave the infield. Robinson Cano, to me, has more of a smooth style, and uses his strong arm to turn double plays extremely well. I share the opinion with a lot of experts when I say that Cano can be an extremely good shortstop, and I honestly think that when Derek Jeter retires, Cano, not Eduardo Nunez or anything else the Yankees can bring in, should move over to shortstop. However, to me, I don’t think Dustin Pedroia can play shortstop. What Cano has in arm strength and grace, Pedroia has in range and grit. That’s why, to me, their fielding styles are very different.
Now, having said all that, it is easy to turn to the one universal stat that Bill James has given the world, Wins Above Replacement. However, their Career WAR’s are extremely close (22.4 for Cano to 24.5 for Pedroia). You can argue that Cano has played more seasons than Pedroia, but also Cano’s WAR has been more consistent during his career than Pedroia’s. Therefore, I think that it is arbitrary to put Pedroia and Cano’s name side by side.
Welcome to Boston Erik Bedard
Since I showed my excitement for Bedard coming to Beantown, I decided to watch his first start, and boy I saw a lot of good things. The calm, cool and collected Bedard was able to efficiently last through 5 frames, and even though he gave up 3 runs, he there were many things I liked:
1. For starters, 49-21 strike-to-walk ratio, which is one reason why he was able to get through 5 with only 70 pitches.
2. 5 K’s in 5 IP. Last time I checked, that’s a 9.00 K/9, or a strike out an inning.
3. No walks, or in other words, not beating himself.
So yes, he did give up 7 hits and 3 ER, but like I said before, if he’s healthy, he’s pretty darn good. Besides, we didn’t give up that much to get him. I think come post-season, he’ll be a very valuable option.
Not a bad first start for Bedard
The Good, the Bad, and the Deal Not Done at the Deadline
Let me start with this: there was not much the Red Sox could do. They shelled out arguably our three best prospects for Adrian Gonzalez, so players like Outfielders Carlos Beltran and Carlos Quentin and Starting Pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez. That being said, they knew they had to make a move for at least a starting pitcher, which we now know is because Clay Buchholz’s stress fracture in his back. Overall, I am happy that they took advantage of the trading period to supply depth to the team.
The Good Trade:
Erik Bedard is going to be a huge piece for the Red Sox down the stretch
Red Sox get: SP Erik Bedard and RP Josh Fields
Red Sox give: C Tim Federowicz, OF Chih-Hsien Chiang, SP Stephen Fife, and RP Juan Rodriguez,
Yes, he is essentially a rental. Yes, he gets hurt all the time. Yes, he is over 30 years old. I understand all the negatives against him. But listen: we did not give up a top 10 prospect for him (according to MLB.com’s top 10 prospects). To me, that could be the bottom line. But luckily, there is more. His career strikeout rate is 8.75, his career walk rate is 3.50, and his career ERA is 3.69. When he is healthy, he is good. The question is whether he is going to be healthy or not, and with Curt Young’s new pitching programs. Great bargain in my mind.
The Bad Trade:
To me, not really an upgrade...
Red Sox get: INF Mike Aviles
Red Sox give: INF Yamaico Navarro and RP Kendal Volz
Yes, Kendal Volz is a 23 year old reliever in Single A. Yes, Yamaico Navarro is not the future starting in the Red Sox infield full time. But here’s my argument: neither is Mike Aviles. I know he’s hit .300 in two different seasons, but his BABIP was also high in those two signs. Plus, he’s already 30 years old. So…how is this an upgrade? Obviously this is not a “major move” (quotations intended). At the same time, I don’t see the reason for making this move. For that reason, I just think it’s a bad trade.
The Trade Not Made:
One of the moves that a lot of baseball analysts thought the Red Sox would make would be for a right handed outfielder. To me, I think they thought that if an outfielder was not going to be better than Darnell McDonald, they did not think it would be worth a trade. To be honest, I liked the rumor about Jeff Francoeur of the, the cannon-armed Royals right fielder who mashes lefties. Like I said before, the Met’s Carlos Beltran was the idea option, but they wanted a top prospect in return, too high a price for the Red Sox. There were rumbings that the Sox were also going to snag Ryan Ludwick out of San Diego’s outfield, but I assume that Theo Epstein was not impressed with his strikeout rate. I just think the Red Sox did not see anything they liked, so they did not pull any triggers they didn’t have to.
However, their wheelin’ and dealin’ may not be over. They still can get a player through waivers. I mean, in 2008, the Sox got Mark Kotsay, and he ended up filling in Mike Lowell. Is there an extra piece out there? Maybe, but considering they are in first place, they are in good shape no matter what happens.
Modest Proposal #1 – 4/11/10
This idea I got from Bill Sheehan from Sports Illustraded. During the past two SI Baseball Preview issues, Sheehan has offered a “modest proposa,” or a proposal that he thinks the manager should consider. They usually don’t, but it allows sports nerds like me to agree or disagree with what he has to say.
So, after watching the Red Sox for a week, here’s one that I thought of: Why not have Varitek catch more?
I don’t think anybody would disagree with the statement that Josh Beckett’s second start was better than his first. Here’s why I think he did better:
1. He was facing the Royals (duh!),
2. He was throwing all of his pitchers effectively,
3. He wasn’t working from the stretch as much, and
4. Jason Varitek was catching.
Look, as long time Red Sox fans, we all know how well Jason Varitek deals with a pitching staff, having a binder for each pitcher on the team full of profiles and statistics. And, if I’m not mistaken, pitchers had a vastly better ERA throwing to Varitek than to Victor Martinez last year. I know that Varitek isn’t the hitter he used to be, but our whole team mentality was about run prevention, not offense. And V-Mart’s arm isn’t that much better than Varitek’s (Martinez is 1-9 in throwing out base runners so far this year).
Another glaring stat that I drew from Ron Shandler, statistician from BaseballHQ.com: Victor Martinez as a catcher has an OPS of .783 in 317 AB in 2009. His OPS as a first baseman last year? .942 in 255 AB. The Indians made it abundantly clear when they had Victor Martinez that he isn’t an everyday catcher, for if he was, they would not have wanted Kelly Shoppach in the Coco Crisp trade many moons ago. Taking Victor Martinez out from behind the plate will keep him healthier and allow him to continue to produce at a high level.
This is my proposal. Martinez catch Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Tim Wakefield, and Varitek catch anybody else. Beckett obviously likes Varitek behind the plate better and Buchholz needs the Varitek Saftey net for at least this year. And would you rather have Daisuke throw his 8 different pitches to Martinez or Varitek? I vote Varitek.
Maybe it doesn’t have to be that rigid, and maybe I’m underestimating Martinez’s ability. All I know is that Josh Beckett seems to like Varitek more, and this isn’t just judging from this year. Maybe we should give Varitek a chance. It can’t hurt.
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Red Sox 8 vs. Royals 6 – 4/11/10
Great way to start a rubber game, scoring 5 runs in the 1st inning. 80
degrees in Kansas City too, great day for a ball game. I miss going to
the games man. Watching baseball live is so underrated.
Here’s
what I thought:
Three things I liked:
1. Adrian Beltre,
3-5, 3 RBI. He’s been making serious contact since opening day. But
what I like the most isn’t that he’s hitting the ball, it is where he’s
hitting the ball. Beltre is known more as a pull hitter than a contact
hitter, so to see him hitting the ball to right field and up the middle
is very encouraging to me. Including today, he is making contact 85% of
the time, which is at a very good rate for being in the No. 6 spot in
the order. This is why he has 6 RBI in 6 games. Keep it up, Adrian!
2.
Jacoby Ellsbury’s defense. He was more of a flashy fielder than a
practical one in center field last year. However, now that he’s in left
field, he can run down plays that would have fallen with Jason Bay or
Manny Ramirez in left. The collision was really unfortunate too, because
that was the second time during the game where an infielder should have
given way to an outfielder. I’m still interested to see if his range
factor improves now that he’s in left.
3. Dustin Pedroia 4-5, HR.
Anyone can pick this one out, but did anyone else notice how many
pitches he made Juan Cruz throw in his last at bat? He made Cruz throw
seven pitches. SEVEN. That is working out an at bat. Also, Don Orsillo
noted something interesting. It took him until July of last year to hit
three home runs. He already has three home runs in six games this year.
MVP No. 2…?
Three things I didn’t:
1. David Ortiz,
0-4, 4 K’s, 1 BB. Great that he worked a walk, but he got caught looking
three times. THREE. We talked about Adrian Beltre’s contact percentage
earlier, so do you want to know what David Ortiz’s is this year? 50%. To
put matters into perspective, Arizona Diamondback third baseman Mark
Reynolds struck out 223 times last year, and his contact percentage of
61%. It’s only the beginning of the year, I know, but this is a guy who
wanted to have a good start.
2. Clay Buchholz. Look, I know it
was his first start of the year, so I’m not going to jump ship. Brian
Daubach put it best; he’s just rusty after not pitching for 9 days. He
left a few pitches up in the zone and had to pitch out of the stretch a
lot today. 5 innings, 2 ER, and a W. Alright, but not great.
3.
Bullpen. I’m not going to rant again, so all I’ll say is that good thing
Daniel Bard got three quick outs.
Take Away:
Overall,
the series was alright. We got two games, our offense is hitting, and
our pitchers got their feet wet. I think our bullpen is really exposed,
but there is still time to fix that. After all, we do have many
fire-ballers in the minors as well. The Twins series will be
interesting, since our teams are very similar this year.
Red Sox 8 vs. Royals 3 – 4/10/10
This is actually an entry off a replay. I have to say, very convenient watching replays on my laptop, but not very efficient. MLB.TV is too complex for the internet I think. Oh well, just have to settle for my mediocre analysis one day late.
Speaking of my mediocre analysis, here it is:
Three things I liked:
1. Josh Beckett. Wow, what a difference on start can make. Threw 76 pitches through the first 6 innings before being worked in the 7th. But man, his stuff was breaking, slicing, and skimming through the strike zone. It looked like his two seam change up came back a foot. Glad to see him get the ball rolling.
2. Facing Zack Greinke. We really gave him no wiggle room. Everyone, even Jacoby Ellsbury, was working the count, and we jumped all over his mistakes (back-to-back home runs in the 5th on consecutive curve balls). Not very often do you have to see Zack Greinke pulled from the game early.
3. Middle infield. Both of our middle infielders got hits (Pedroia even got a home run), both got hit by pitches, and that double play in the 7th inning looked like a rock skimming across a pond. Those two are really going to work well together, and I think they will complement each other every well in the field and at the plate.
Three things I didn’t:
You know what, there wasn’t really anything that I didn’t like. How can you not like 5 HRs and 0 ER from the bullpen?
Take Away:
The offensive firepower that showed up during the game is very encouraging to me. If this is the production we get from our bench players, we are going to have a very good year. Keep watching how Francona uses his lineup card.
Red Sox 3 vs. Royals 4 – 4/9/10
Man. Hotel internet really sucks. Don’t get sucked in by the WiFi promotions because it is as slow as David Ortiz.
Here’s my opinion of a very choppy replay of last nights game.
Three things I liked:
1. Tim Wakefield. Really glad to see him back from back surgery. No body has been more consistent than this guy. He eats up innings, he throws 75 mph fastball, he gets hurt once a year, and in the end, he ends up with at least 10 wins every season. Seven innings of two run ball is really valuable, even if it’s against the royals.
2. J.D. Drew. It’s not that he hit a home run. It’s the way he hit a home run. He took two pitches to get settled in, and then when Davies made a mistake, he took advantage. People don’t think he’s worth the money he’s getting, but I think he deserves his contract more than other players on the Sox do.
3. Mike Cameron. Had a nice little game out of the No. 8 spot, with two hits and a walk. He also had an excellent gun out of Jose Guillen at home plate. To be honest, I think having Drew then Cameron at No. 7 and No. 8 is a really good idea. They both get on base to keep the inning alive. The two of them are also great defenders. If we make it to the playoffs again, they are going to be two big reasons why.
Three things I didn’t:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury trying to stretch a double. I’m sorry, but what the hell was he thinking? He had a much better chance settling with a single and stealing second, especially since Jason Kendall isn’t who he used to be. Bill James was right, Jacoby Ellsbury is not a good base runner. There’s a difference between being fast and being a good base runner, and Jacoby Ellsbury right now is just fast.
2. The Bullpen. Ok, now it’s time to worry a little. We were facing the Royals. THE ROYALS. And we couldn’t hold the lead down. I’m telling you right now, look for a mid season trade for Heath Bell of the Padres or Scott Downs of the Blue Jays.
3. Not really getting to Kyle Davies. He made quick work of us in the first inning, and only surrendered 3 runs on 6 hits and a walk over 6 innings. I just thought we could have hit him harder, considering his control is terrible and he’s a high percentage fly ball pitcher. Just a little disappointed that’s all.
Take Away:
To be honest, it stinks we wasted a good start out of Tim Wakefield considering I don’t know how many we’re going to get. Our bullpen was really exposed, and I’m serious about us making a trade for a reliever. Hopefully Beckett can pitch well enough that we don’t need to use as many relievers tomorrow.
Yankees 6 vs. Red Sox 4 – 4/6/10
To be quite honest, I only watched the last three innings, so I apologize with the subjectivity of this post. But then again, if you were worried about my subjectivity, you would’ve already tuned out.
Here’s what I thought:
Things that I liked:
1. Marco Scutaro’s at bat against Mariano Rivera. I know this isn’t a big thing to get worked up about, but he turned an 0-2 count into a 2-2 count, and then hit a double to left center field. Look, he did have an error, but I do appreciate his attempt to get us back into the game.
2. Daniel Bard. Holy crap. Did anyone see that slider to A-Rod? That was ridiculous. He did have a walk to Nick Johnson, but that’s what Nick Johnson does, walk. Look, he will have some control issues during the year, but he’s going to strike out a lot more, keeping his command numbers still pretty good. Meet the next great home-grown reliever.
3. Scott Atchinson. I know he did give up a home run to Robinson Cano, but that was the one mistake he made. He bailed out Hideki Okajima (I’ll get to him later), and pitched so Ramirez, Schowenweis, and Papelbon didn’t have to. He’ll probably get mop up duty for now, but he was dirt cheap, so it’s great we have him as a guy we can just throw out there to keep it close
Things that I didn’t:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury’s plate approach. Look, it’s great that he had a single and a double and stole a base and had two runs. However, he took three pitches for balls the entire game. There’s nothing wrong with not walking….if you make a lot of contact. However, Jacoby Ellsbury does not make enough contact to warrant taking three pitches for balls in five at bats. He needs to take more walks, especailly as the lead off hitter, or else he’s going to keep giving us headaches like we had at the beginning of last year.
2. Adrian Beltre’s swings. Also, great that he went 2 for 4, but the at bats that I saw did not look like Beltre’s two hits were very convincing. The at bat that I saw was against Joba Chamberlain, and he swung at a pitch that made me puke. He’s got a big swing, but he needs to control it.
3. Hideki Okajima. I talked about this two days ago, and I will say it again, I am not confident in Hideki Okajima in the 8th inning anymore. Yes, Marco Scutaro did have an error, but what were those guys doing on base in the first place? He’s got to change speeds and use his deceptive motion to keep people off base, or else this will be a long year for him.
Take Away from Game:
I think just another tune up game at this point, so we can’t draw too many conclusions yet. I’m glad Jon Lester is still striking people out, and we can’t really get on his case for giving up 4 runs or even issuing 3 walks, at least not yet. And finally, shout out to Victor Martinez for being Victor Martinez. I think, quite honestly, he’s going to benefit us offensively in the long run, especially if we extend his contract.
Opening Night: Yankees 7 vs. Boston 9 4/4/10
Ah. Nice to come out of hibernation. I feel like I’m coming out of my cocoon. I also loved how it was 66 degrees by the first pitch. By the way, nice to see Pedro back throwing out the first pitch. Wonder if he’ll throw another one this season…
Anyways, here’s my, um, hard cutting analysis?
Three things I liked:
1. Mike Cameron. When the ball was hit to the center field area, I really was not worried about it falling in. Let it be known, Red Sox fans, that Cameron had the highest universal range last year according to SI.com. I also liked his showing at the plate, working the count in his first two plate appearances. I don’t know if people remember this, Cameron almost came to Boston via a Manny Ramirez deal in 2005. Now you know why.
2. Marco Scutaro. Turned a great double play in the third inning, hit a key RBI single in the fifth inning, and scored on Pedroia’s home run in the seventh inning. He’s doing what we signed him to do, play good defense and add production from the number nine spot. Maybe he could really help out after all, but obviously too early to tell. And speaking of Pedroia…
3. Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia. A double and a run in the first inning, a triple and two RBI and a run in the sixth inning, and a double with a run scored in the sixth inning for Youkilis. And all Pedroia did was hit a high inside fastball for a two-run home run to tie the game. Yeah, they’re good, and as consistent as they come. I’m glad to see that our partners in crime are back!
Three things I didn’t:
1. Beckett’s command of the strike zone. If you were watching the game on NESN, Jerry Remy picked up on Beckett’s curveball problems early. He didn’t throw it for a strike during the entire game. Not only that, but he had trouble hitting Martinez’s glove, which is the reason for the back-to-back home runs in the second inning and the double to Cano in the fourth. He really couldn’t put hitters away, which is why he had an early exit tonight.
2. What we got from Ramirez and Okajima. Two big pieces of our bullpen last year, and I’m already a little afraid of them this year. Okajima had trouble stranding inherited runners in 2008, and I wasn’t confident with him coming in with runners in scoring position tonight. As Don Orsilo said during the broadcast, the game got out of hand quickly, and I hope this doesn’t become a pattern.
3. Catching defense. To be quite honest, I knew that when Jeter attempted to steal second in the 4th inning, there was no way Victor Martinez was going to get him. But the thing I REALLY didn’t like was how short he was on the throw over. Scutaro came in to try and get Gardner at home, but that ball was going to hit the ground. Oh, and that wild pitch in the fifth inning could have prevented a scare too. I hope this isn’t a sign of more catching woes to come.
Take Away
As far as the Red Sox go, come on! It’s Opening Day! And we won! A take away for baseball in general? Guess what, IT’S BASEBALL SEASON!!
What to Watch: Final Spring entry
Opening Day is finally less than a week away! All Red Sox fans can finally come out of hibernation and enjoy their lives once more!
Nobody is probably as excited for Opening Day as me, for my dorm is only a mile walk away from Fenway Park and it has been dead in west Boston since October.
After looking over countless spring training box scores, here are five players that I think are worth keeping an eye on:
Jacoby Ellsbury, LF: The Boston Metro has already written an article on the speedy outfielder, saying that his range in the outfield is below average, and Terry Francona has already taken him out of the lead off spot because he’s not very good at getting on base. Add the fact that Bill James’ stats indicate that he isn’t a good base runner, and we’ve got a question mark stamped on his stat page. There is no question that he is the lead off hitter that we thought we’ve been waiting for since Johnny Damon left, but I think he needs to be watched this year. Don’t be surprised if his on-base, base-path, and fielding trends continue, or if Theo Epstein pulls out his name during the trading deadline.
Mike Cameron, CF: has always been a vulture in the outfield, and has been very valuable as a power-speed offensive player for most of his career. I was originally scared off by this signing, but I’ve come to like it more and more through spring training. His speed is gone, yes, but Cameron has always been tremendous at getting on base. To be quite honest, he could be Jason Bay Lite, with less home runs and runs batted in but essentially the same on base numbers. For our No. 6 or No. 7 hitter, that’s not bad.
Adrian Beltre, 3B: Another 1-year signing, we also signed him for his defensive ability. He also scared me too, because he has had some injury issues the past few years and is kind of a free swinger. Now, I don’t put a lot of stock in Spring Training stats, but Beltre has walked more times than he’s struck out, which could be very telling. I’m starting to believe that a year in the Red Sox line-up could somewhat diminish his free swinging habits (.340 OBP?). Plus, he’s been known to be able to turn on the ball (at least 25 HRs between 2006-2008), and now that he’s out of Safeco Field, he could provide a lot more power than the average No. 8 hitter.
Jon Lester, SP: I knew he was good, but when actually looked at what he did last year, my eyes popped out of my head. Did you know he struck out more than a batter an inning last year? Or that he had a 3.5 Strikeout to Walk ratio? Not only that, but according to statistician Ron Shandler, his expected ERA last year was 3.11, 3 tenths lower than his ERA last year. Oh, and by the way, he’s 26 this year, meaning his progression isn’t over. We all know Lester is good, but I’m saying watch him anyways, because he could be in Cy Young Award contention come October.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP: The $100 million investment project is in it’s fourth year now, and it has definitely been a roller coaster. Last year was definitely the big drop into the cork-screw. At the beginning of the year, he couldn’t get anybody out, going onto the disabled list with an ERA over 8.00. Then, just when we lose all hope, he comes back in September looking like the 2008 Dice-Man (3-1, 2.22 ERA). Now the obvious question is, which one will show up in 2009? He decided to stay in America over the off-season, so that could be a promising sign. All I have to say is make sure your trey-table is up and your seat back is in its full-upright position.
Speedster of Beantown 